So, I stated a few days ago that I was creating a list of possible draft prospects for the Indiana Pacers. I sat and I drew up a couple lists, but nothing really seemed to stick for me, so I thought that I might just go ahead and run through some of the prospects that are going to be coming into the draft and not worry about what team will draft them. I decided to ask for Jack Cobra's help in this conquest and like the conquistador that he is, he obliged and even finished before I was expecting him to. So, without further anticipation...
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Words by Jack Cobra:
With all the talks of bailouts around the nation over the past six months, I can't believe that NBA teams aren't looking for Commissioner Stern to bail them out of the 2009 NBA Draft by not forcing them to select and then pay some of these jokers that are coming from the college ranks. This has to be one of the weakest drafts of all time as I don't believe there is one franchise player available. With the NBA age limit still in effect, the league has become a league of men, as it should be, and most of these kids aren't ready. Still, teams will be drafting so let's run down some of these so called 'prospects'. (Players come from Draft Express 2009 Mock Draft http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2009/)
Blake Griffin - 6'10" PF/C - Oklahoma - If Griffin is 6'10" I'll feed you a hamburger every Tuesday for the rest of your life. He kills in college because he can overpower most players down low but that's not going to happen in the NBA. His perimeter shooting is shaky at best and his defense is suspect. While Michael Beasley is picking up paychecks because he can shoot from the perimeter in Miami, Griffin is not going to be so lucky. Any team that drafts him is going to be overpaying for the next few years as he puts up 6-8 pts and 5-7 rebounds per game.
James Harden - 6'5" G - Arizona State - Here is another kid exaggerating quite a bit on his height. I've watched Harden play a few times this year and while he tears up the Pac-10 he screams 'crafty' when I think of him in NBA terms. Harden has a high basketball IQ but his height and lack or lateral quickness is going to keep him from being much more than a 6th man in the NBA.
Jordan Hill - 6'10" PF - Arizona - It's always nice to see players improve in their third year in college but really that just means that they underachieved before or they were really, really skinny. Hill fits both of those profiles. It is encouraging that he has a good work ethic but he's not a lottery draft pick most years. I'd be surprised if he out-performs former UConn big man Hilton Armstrong (4.6 pts/2.7 rebs) in the NBA.
Hasheem Thabeet - 7'3" C - UConn - I'm just dying for the Indiana Pacers to draft him so they can line up Roy Hibbert and Thabeet to form the slowest front court in NBA history. We all know how 7-footers struggle mightily coming out of college when they don't have a 8-10 foot jumper and Thabeet is no different. He'll provide some protection around the rim but that's about it. He can't play on an up-tempo team like the Knicks and he's not strong enough to man the post for a team like the Grizzlies.
Greg Monroe - 6'11" PF - Georgetown - If Monroe gets drafted by the right team (Wizards, Pacers, Grizzlies, Kings) he could be a very solid contributor two years down the road. Monroe has a great game and a good basketball IQ but right now isn't physically mature enough to contribute much in the NBA next season.
Brandon Jennings - 6'1" PG - Europe - I have to believe that this kid is just dying to go to Golden State so he can run around the court in the preseason before Don Nelson sits him on the bench for two years. His jumper is weak and his ability to run a team is suspect at this point. This kid is a project.
Ricky Rubio - 6'4" PF - Europe - All signs point towards Rubio coming over to the NBA in 2010 but if the Knicks are in the top-3 of the lottery you can be sure he's going to re-assess his situation. Rubio is an excellent talent that struggles on the perimeter but excels at running a team and with his passing. He's lighting quick, runs the pick and roll almost to perfection and is mature beyond his years. If Mike D'Antoni could get this kid the Knicks would never be the same.
Al-Farouq Aminu - 6'8" SF/PF - Wake Forest - The kid is a beast but he needs to spend another year in college learning how to play the game. If he did that, he might go #1 next season and be able to make an impact in the NBA. Unfortunately, some team will take him in the lottery and he'll probably flame out.
Jeff Teague/Stephen Curry - 6'2" G - Wake Forest/Davidson - These two are practically the same player. Undersized shooting guards without the dribbling skills of a point guard. They might do better in the NBA than J.J. Redick but it's going to be close.
Earl Clark - 6'9" F - Louisville - He's wasting his talent so I'm not going to waste my time writing about him. With each three pointer he chucks up, he moves further away from his true calling. Or, maybe his true calling is to be out of the league quickly.
Gerald Henderson - 6'5" G - Duke - Seriously? This dude is the 11th best player in the mock draft? No, no, no, no, no.
Willie Warren - 6'4" G - Oklahoma - His upside maxes out in J.R. Rider/Bonzi Wells territory.
Ty Lawson - 6' PG - North Carolina - Super quick in the college game but the NBA knows how to stifle guys like that. He needs to learn how to run an offense instead of just running before he can be a full time point guard in the NBA. He's a decent mid-teen pick as long as he's coming off the bench like Aaron Brooks (Rockets).
B.J. Mullens - 7' C - Ohio State - The kid can barely start for OSU. Stick around college for another two years.
Tyreke Evans - 6'5" G - Memphis - I have to admit, he's a competitor but he can't shoot enough to be a SG in the NBA and he can't handle well enough to run the point. He'd look real good in an Orlando Magic uniform but he won't last that long in this draft. If the Jazz don't make the playoffs they could be a good fit for him, too.
Patrick Patterson - 6'8" PF - Kentucky - If he's a true 6'8" then he'd be a nice late lottery pick up for a team that can run him with their second unit. He has some inside moves and battles down low so he'll have a decent career.
Kyle Singler - 6'9" G/F - Duke - People were loving Mike Dunleavy, Jr. when he came out of college and this kid isn't even as good as him. He'll be a little better than Josh McRoberts (Pacers?) but he's too slow, too light and not good enough defensively to make a difference in the NBA. He'll kill on the YMCA circuit in a few years.
DeJuan Blair - 6'7" F/C - Pittsburgh - Hello, Tractor Traylor.
DaJuan Summers - 6'8" SF - Georgetown - Right now his draft stock is dropping quicker than the DOW but he has the skills to be a mid to late first round steal. Unfortunately the Spurs, Celtics and Rockets don't have a first round pick because he'd be a great fit there but maybe one of those teams will sneak into the first round by trade in the next couple of months.
As you can tell, I'm not really high on this draft class as only about three or four of these guys could help out in the NBA next season. Look for some teams to try to pull a Phoenix Suns trick out of their hats by trading away their picks but in this economic climate that is going to be difficult to do.
Comments
Love the insight. Sounds kind of funny, but could be true. I could see this be that type of draft.
Yikes...while I agree that this draft is super weak (as is this NFL Draft), I disagree with a few of your assessments. I think Griffin is going to be a beast. He draws comparisons to Carlos Boozer because of his height, but I think he'll be way better than Boozer. Then again, even though I was 100 percent in favor of Rose from the moment the Bulls won the lottery, I also thought B-Easy would be better than he is. Griffin is more of a tradition post man than Beasley though, and I don't think he shares the same me-first, no-defense attitude that plagues Beasley.
Harden is ok, but yeah, he's a 6'3 shooting guard. I think he'll be a an effective NBA scorer (probably right around 20 ppg), but you won't win a title with him as your primary scorer.
Few other things...
Ricky Rubio is straight filthy, Thabeet's got Sam Dalenbert written all over him, and I like both Earl Clark and Henderson.
Keep in mind that when Boozer was at Duke he spent most of his time in the post and then he established a decent jumper in the NBA. Griffin really doesn’t have any low post moves as he just kind of bulldozes around down there, which he can do in the college game because of his strength and athleticism. He won’t be able to do that in the NBA. I think he’s closer to Marcus Fizer @ ISU or Kris Humphries at Minnesota than he is to Boozer. Maybe he’ll figure it out but he’s not a typical “franchise” #1 pick.
Harden might be able to get to 18 ppg but not in his rookie year. He’s smart enough to figure things out but it might take him a little bit of time. He doesn’t have the talent of Eric Gordon or OJ Mayo to just get those points. His game might be closer to Rip Hamilton’s than Ray Allen’s, although he’ll be playing on a much worse team.
I’m not sure if what you said about Thabeet is a compliment or not? Clark could be something but he doesn’t seem to have the will to do it and Henderson is from Duke, which should say it all at this point. Actually, I wish someone would put together a really nice, intelligent blog post about how Coach K seemingly takes these players who aren’t good in the NBA and makes them excel at the college level.
I ahve to agree with the Greg Monroe assessment. I think he is the best player in terms of ability and upside. I, too, think Griffin is overrated for the NBA. He runs over people like Shaq does, but he isnt that big and his feet aren't nearly as good as Shaq's (were). Not only that, but he can't pass and is slow getting up to speed in transition where you need a guy his size to be mobile. I shit you not he is smaller than LeBron
I always finish before expected. It's my thing.